|
As 2020 was nearing a close, PERF was hearing about spikes in violent crime levels. We surveyed our members and learned that in a sample of 223 cities of all sizes, there was a 28% increase in homicides in the first 9 months of 2020, compared to the same time frame in 2019. During December, a number of police chiefs told us anecdotally that they attributed the increased homicides to broader increases in gun-related crime, both fatal and nonfatal shootings. New data compiled by PERF shows that these increases were not limited to a few large departments. The majority of agencies responding to a new PERF survey reported that firearm homicides, nonfatal shootings, and the number of illegal firearms recovered all increased from 2019 to 2020. And these patterns were not limited to the largest agencies; increases in gun crimes and recoveries were reported by agencies of all sizes. Today’s Critical Issues report summarizes the survey data and includes insights from some survey respondents explaining what is behind the numbers in their jurisdictions.
How the Data Were Compiled To assess recent patterns in gun crime and firearm recoveries, on January 5 PERF sent a brief questionnaire to all its member agencies. The survey asked for data on the number of firearm homicides, nonfatal shootings, and recovered firearms for both 2019 and 2020. The survey also sought respondents’ views about the reasons for the trends they are experiencing. A total of 129 agencies responded to the survey by the deadline of January 19. They represented a cross-section of departments from 32 states, the District of Columbia, and 3 Canadian provinces. One-third of the responding agencies have 500 or more officers, 23% have 250-499 officers, 30% have 50-249, and 14% have fewer than 50 officers.
Firearm Homicides 57% of all agencies responding to the PERF survey reported an increase in homicides committed with a firearm from 2019 to 2020. 21% reported a decrease in firearm homicides, and in 22% of the agencies (mostly smaller departments), there was no change between the two years. While agencies of all sizes reported a jump in firearm homicides, the increases were more pronounced in larger departments. Among agencies with 500 or more officers, 74% reported more firearm homicides in 2020 than in 2019. 19% of these largest agencies saw a decrease, and in 7% there was no change. Similarly, among agencies with 250-499 officers, 73% experienced an increase in firearms homicides, 17% saw a decline, and 10% reported no change. Even among agencies with 50-249 officers, more reported an increase in firearm homicides (44%) than a decrease or no change (28% each). Among the smallest agencies (fewer than 50 officers), 17% had an increase, 17% had a decrease, and there was no change in 67% departments. Combined, the 129 agencies that responded to PERF’s survey reported a total of 3,350 firearm homicides in 2020, an increase of 39% over the 2019 total of 2,534.
Nonfatal Shootings The increases were even more dramatic in nonfatal shooting incidents. Nearly 7 in 10 of the agencies responding to the PERF survey reported a rise in nonfatal shooting incidents last year. And except for the smallest departments, the surge in nonfatal shootings was experienced by agencies of all sizes. 80% of agencies with 500 or more officers, 82% with 250-499 officers, and 63% with 50-249 officers reported increases in nonfatal shooting incidents from 2019 to 2020. Among departments with fewer than 50 officers, 35% reported an increase and 12% a decrease, while another 53% saw no change.
Firearm Recoveries PERF’s survey also asked about the number of illegal firearms that agencies recovered during 2019 and 2020. Even as some agencies have had to curtail their level of proactive policing because of COVID-19, firearm recoveries were up overall. 59% of the respondents reported an increase in firearm recoveries, 35% saw a decrease, and 6% recorded no change. The increase in gun recoveries was evident in agencies of all sizes. 66% of agencies with 500 or more officers, 57% with 250-499 officers, 58% with 50-249 officers, and 50% of departments with fewer than 50 officers reported a rise in the number of recovered firearms. Although many agencies saw an increase in the number of recovered firearms, most respondents reported that their recovery tactics had not changed over the two years. Some agencies reported scaling back their proactive enforcement and investigation strategies because of the coronavirus pandemic. For example, to reduce exposure to the public, agencies reported making fewer traffic stops or suspending gun buyback programs. “At the beginning of COVID, we reduced gun buybacks and restricted contacts. We only did one buyback for the whole year, as opposed to multiple during a normal year. Narcotic search warrants were delayed for some time, as well. This led to diminished recoveries. Minimizing contact with field interviews for our criminal investigations did restrict recoveries.” – Police captain from a large agency Other agencies, however, said they had begun taking more proactive steps to recover firearms or had undertaken new strategies, such as increased utilization of NIBRS and ShotSpotter, or the creation of a gun crimes unit. “The majority of the firearms recovered were attributed to proactive policing, arrests, and follow-up investigations. In addition, we increased the ShotSpotter coverage area at the end of 2019 from 6 total square miles to 24.25 square miles for 2020. As a result, we documented an increase in illegal shooting calls that the agency responded to. We wound up recovering a total of 100 firearms in 2020, merely related to the ShotSpotter response, and that was just from the initial patrol response (not follow-up later).” – Sergeant from a large agency Additionally, most agencies said they did not notice a change in the type of firearms being recovered. Among those that have seen a recent change, most said they were encountering more ghost guns (firearms assembled from parts and, therefore, not traceable), firearms with extended magazines, and high-powered rifles.
People Illegally Carrying Firearms The PERF survey also asked agencies if they were seeing any changes in the number of people illegally carrying firearms in their jurisdictions. 53% of respondents estimated they were seeing more people illegally carrying firearms than in previous years; 17% said they were not seeing an increase, and the remaining 30% were not sure. Larger agencies were more likely to report an increase in the illegal carrying of guns. 63% of departments with 500 or more officers and 67% with 250-499 officers said they were seeing more people illegally carrying guns. 33% of agencies with 50-249 officers and 50% with fewer than 50 officers reported an increase. Respondents who noted a rise in the number of people carrying firearms generally cited three reasons for this trend: increased access to firearms (including the acquisition of ghost guns and the theft of legally purchased weapons), self-protection, and little fear of consequences if caught illegally possessing a gun. Several agencies reported an increase in the recovery of untraceable ghost guns possessed by individuals prohibited from legally obtaining a firearm. Additionally, some agencies noted an overall increase in the legal sales of firearms since the start of the pandemic. Thefts of these legally obtained firearms, often because they are left unsecured in vehicles, has contributed to the number of illegal firearms on the street in some jurisdictions. “In the past two years, a total of 298 guns have been stolen from vehicles. Out of the known 298 guns stolen, only 40 have been recovered. The discrepancy in the number of guns stolen and recovered indicate there is a high probability there are multiple people carrying firearms illegally.” – Crime analyst from a medium-sized agency “There are more firearms, and more dangerous types of firearms, being stolen by criminals who have shown a diminished fear of criminal penalties for using them to commit crimes.” – Lieutenant of a medium-sized agency A number of respondents said they believe more people are carrying firearms for self-protection, in case they encounter a rival gang member or feel the need to protect their lives and property from other armed individuals. “Based on custodial interviews, suspects have repeatedly stated they would rather be caught by the police with a gun than confronted by a rival without one. In addition, the courts have recently been deferring sentencing for first-time ‘possession by ineligible’ offenders to diversion on a 60-month sentence.” – Deputy chief of a large agency Other respondents noted that COVID-19 has impacted the ability of the justice system to hold people fully accountable for illegally possessing a firearm. Many court systems shut down for periods of time, which delayed some trials. And to keep jail and prison populations down in order to reduce the spread of the virus, some suspects who might otherwise have been held in jail were released. In other cases, convicted offenders have had their sentences reduced or alternatives imposed. Some jurisdictions are seeing all of these factors come together. “It is difficult to attribute the increase in firearms to one particular reason, since we have had several contributing factors. First, the proliferation of ghost guns has made the availability of untraceable guns more prevalent. Second, the softening of several laws and early prison releases have left more violent criminals on the street. Also, COVID has made jail crowding a huge issue, and the lack of court proceedings is negatively impacting prosecutions and sentences, leaving violent criminals on the streets.” – Lieutenant from a large agency
Conclusions PERF’s two recent surveys on crime rates and shootings point to a significant problem of increased violence in the United States:
The PERF Critical Issues Report is part of the Critical Issues in Policing project, supported by the Motorola Solutions Foundation.
PERF also is grateful to the Howard G. Buffett Foundation for supporting this work.
|
