May 12, 2020

 

PERF’s COVID-19 coronavirus resources, including past editions of the Daily COVID-19 Report, are available at https://www.policeforum.org/coronavirus.

 

How Has the COVID-19 Pandemic Impacted Crime Rates?

For today’s COVID-19 Report, we took a close look at how stay-at-home orders, the closing of non-essential businesses, and other restrictions may have affected crime rates and the activity levels of police.

To help answer that question, PERF recently contacted 30 law enforcement agencies across the United States and four agencies in other countries. We asked each agency to provide data on how violent and property crime levels, arrests, and calls for service have changed since the pandemic spread.

We compared crime numbers for a 28-day period (March 16 to April 12) in 2020 to the same period in 2019.

We chose that period because on March 16, 2020, the Coronavirus was beginning to have a major impact on the United States. On that date, approximately 4,500 people were known to have tested positive nationwide, and there were fewer than 100 known fatalities in the United States.

The 28-day time period beginning March 16 also generally coincided with the issuance of federal guidelines designed to slow the spread of COVID-19, and the imposition of many state-level stay-at-home orders and other restrictions.

At the bottom of this COVID-19 Report, you will find bar graphs depicting the data collected from each of the 30 agencies.

First, we will provide a summary of our findings:

 

Reported Violent Crime Was Slightly Down in Many Cities

Reported violent crime decreased in 18 of the 30 U.S. cities, when the 28-day period ending April 12, 2020 was compared to the same period of 2019.

On average, these 18 jurisdictions had 7.3 fewer violent crimes per 100,000 residents in 2020 than in 2019, for the mid-March to mid-April period studied.

The largest reductions in violent crime rates were found in:

  • Syracuse, NY, which had 19 fewer violent crimes per 100,000 people in 2020 than in 2019
  • San Francisco, 16 fewer violent crimes per 100,000
  • Los Angeles, 14 fewer violent crimes per 100,000
  • Newark, NJ, 12 fewer violent crimes per 100,000
  • Baltimore, 10 fewer violent crimes per 100,000
  • Miami, 10 fewer violent crimes per 100,000
  • Dallas, 9 fewer violent crimes per 100,000
  • New York City, 7 fewer violent crimes per 100,000.

Violent crime increased in the other 12 U.S. jurisdictions. On average, these cities had 4.4 more violent crimes per 100,000 population in March-April 2020 than in March-April 2019.

Among the cities experiencing violent crime increases were:

  • Denver, with 10 more violent crimes per 100,000 in 2020 than in 2019
  • Houston, 8 more violent crimes per 100,000
  • Grand Rapids, MI, 8 more violent crimes per 100,000
  • Tempe, AZ, 6 more violent crimes per 100,000
  • Irving, TX, 6 more violent crimes per 100,000.

 

The Homicide Picture Is Mixed

Twelve of the 30 agencies reported no change in their homicide totals when comparing the 28-day periods of 2019 and 2020. Of the remaining agencies, nine reported increases and nine had decreases.

Nashville reported the largest increase, with 1.5 more homicides per 100,000 population in 2020 than in 2019.

Miami had the largest decrease in homicides, with 1.1 fewer homicides per 100,000 population in 2020 than in 2019.

 

Robberies Have Generally Declined

With far fewer people out on the street, 22 of the 30 cities reported decreases in robberies when comparing the two 28-day periods.

The largest declines were found in:

  • San Francisco, with 7.8 fewer robberies per 100,000 in 2020 than in 2019,
  • Baltimore, with 6.8 fewer robberies per 100,000,
  • Syracuse, with 6.3 fewer robberies per 100,000,
  • Washington, DC, with 6.0 fewer robberies per 100,000, and
  • Dallas, with 5.9 fewer robberies per 100,000.

17 of the jurisdictions reported a decline in aggravated assaults, while 13 experienced an increase.

 

Reductions in Property Crime Have Been Even More Dramatic

25 of the 30 U.S. jurisdictions reported decreases in overall property crime, when March-April 2020 was compared to the same period in 2019. On average, these cities had 48.1 fewer property crimes per 100,000 residents.

Declines in property crime occurred in communities of all sizes and in all parts of the country, including the following:

  • San Francisco, with 185 fewer property crimes per 100,000 population in 2020 than in 2019,
  • Baltimore, with 135 fewer property crimes per 100,000,
  • DC, with 106 fewer property crimes per 100,000,
  • Miami, with 98 fewer property crimes per 100,000,
  • Detroit, with 93 fewer property crimes per 100,000,
  • Chicago, with 82 fewer property crimes per 100,000, and
  • Syracuse, with 56 fewer property crimes per 100,000

The reduction in overall property crime was driven largely by a drop in reports of larceny-thefts. Twenty-eight of the 30 jurisdictions experienced declines in this crime type. The average rate in 2020 was 112 per 100,000 population, compared to 147 per 100,000 in 2019.

 

A Mixed Picture with Burglaries

With so many people staying at home rather than reporting to their workplaces, there are indications that residential burglaries have fallen dramatically.

In some cities, however, this appears to have been offset by a spike in commercial burglaries.

While the data collected by PERF do not differentiate between residential and commercial burglaries, several police chiefs have discussed the increase in commercial burglaries in other COVID-19 Reports, noting that many businesses are closed all day and are also less occupied at night because cleaning crews and security staffs may have been reduced or suspended.

In 17 of the 30 jurisdictions, overall burglaries declined during the 28-day period ending April 12, 2020. In several cities, the reductions have been dramatic:

  • Baltimore experienced 24 fewer burglaries per 100,000 population in 2020 than in 2019;
  • Detroit had 16 fewer burglaries per 100,000,
  • Charleston had 11 fewer burglaries per 100,000,
  • Houston had 8 fewer burglaries per 100,000 , and
  • Dallas had 8 fewer burglaries per 100,000.

Seattle had 32 more burglaries per 100,000 in 2020 than in 2019.

 

Motor Vehicle Thefts Go Against the Overall Trend

Overall, motor vehicle theft showed no statistically significant change in PERF’s sample of cities. Motor vehicle thefts rose in 16 of the jurisdictions, declined in 13, and were unchanged in one.
Large increases in motor vehicle thefts were reported in:

  • Vancouver, WA, with 19 additional motor vehicle thefts per 100,000 population, 
  • Salt Lake City, with 14 additional motor vehicle thefts per 100,000, 
  • Austin, TX, with 12 additional motor vehicle thefts per 100,000, 
  • Tempe, AZ, with 11 additional motor vehicle thefts per 100,000, and 
  • Denver, with 10 additional motor vehicle thefts per 100,000.

 

Calls for Service Are Down Across the Board

Comparing March 16-April 12, 2020 with the same period of 2019, calls for police service were down in 29 of the 30 U.S. jurisdictions that PERF examined. (Only the Prince George’s County, MD Police Department reported a slight, 3% increase in calls for service.)

 

Arrest Activity Has Declined as Well

22 of the 30 jurisdictions reported data on arrests for serious (Part I) crimes. In 18 of the 22 jurisdictions, arrests were down during the 28-day period ending April 12, 2020 compared to the year before.

In many cases, the reductions were substantial. For example, Part I arrests declined 66% in Boston, 61% in Miami, 54% in Salt Lake City, 53% in Chicago, and 45% in San Francisco.

Arrests increased in three jurisdictions: Grand Rapids, MI (+20%); Volusia County, FL (+7%); and Atlanta (+6%).

The trend was even more dramatic with arrests for less serious, Part II crimes. All 21 of the jurisdictions that reported Part II arrest data saw substantial reductions, ranging from 29% in Atlanta to 73% in Chicago.

 

Crime Patterns in Other Countries

PERF received crime data from four non-U.S. police agencies, including the Verona region of Italy, which was particularly hard hit by the coronavirus. Comparing the same 28-day time periods, here are the highlights. (The crime categories in these international agencies do not align precisely with the UCR program in the United States.)

Verona, Italy

The number of violent crimes, which are low to begin with, declined from 19 in 2019 to just 7 in 2020. Property crimes fell even more dramatically, from 1,204 to 111. This 28-day period coincided with a near total lockdown in all regions of Italy.

Vancouver, BC Canada

Violent crime rose by 24.5% in Vancouver, driven largely by an increase in robberies. Still, the numbers are relatively low: 53 violent crimes in March 16-April 12, 2019, vs. 66 during the same period of 2020. Overall, property crime in Vancouver declined by 7%, although burglaries rose.

Ottawa, ON Canada

Both violent and property crime declined in Ottawa. The 44%-reduction in violent crime was largely the result of a large drop in robberies. Property crimes were down 35% overall, although burglaries did increase.

Police Scotland

Violent crime in Scotland rose nearly 35%, driven entirely by a rise is both serious and common assaults. Homicides during this period fell from 6 to 3. Property crime was up 31%, the result of a dramatic increase in thefts.

 

Detailed Data from the 30 U.S. Jurisdictions

The bar graphs below depict the data PERF received from responding cities on their crime rates for each type of crime, comparing the period of March 16-April 12, 2020, with the same dates for 2019.

Note that these figures for each city depict changes in the number of crimes per 100,000 population. That is also the measurement we used above in summarizing our findings in the text of this COVID-19 Report.

Traditionally, crime data often has been presented in terms of percentage change in crime rates. But this can be misleading.

For example, a small city may experience an increase in homicides from 1 homicide one year to 4 homicides the next year – a 300% increase. Meanwhile, a larger city may experience a sharp increase in homicides from 100 homicides to 150 homicides, which is “only” a 50% increase. But no one would say that the large city’s 50% increase is less serious than the small city’s increase of 300%.

So in the charts below, we attempt to level the playing field by using the same measurement for each city. All of the figures are adjusted on a population basis, but the numbers on the Y axis are not percentages. Rather, they are the numbers of crimes per 100,000 population, up or down, for each city.

So for example, Baltimore reported a slight increase in its number of homicides per 100,000 population in 2020 compared to 2019 (blue bar), but it had approximately 7 fewer robberies per 100,000 population in 2020 (orange bar), and 4 fewer aggravated assaults per 100,000 population (green bar).

 

A Quick Note about Methodology

The 30 American police agencies chosen by PERF included many of the largest cities in the country, as well as several mid-sized and smaller jurisdictions. Combined, they serve close to 10% of the U.S. population. But the agencies were not intended to be representative of U.S. law enforcement as a whole. Data were collected for each of the UCR Part I Index crimes, as well as calls for service and arrests.

 
 

The PERF Daily COVID-19 Report is part of the Critical Issues in Policing project, supported by the Motorola Solutions Foundation.

 

PERF also is grateful to the Howard G. Buffett Foundation for supporting PERF’s COVID-19 work.

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